Betting on Underdogs in the Premier League – What You Need to Know

We’ve compiled four tips for you that you should definitely keep in mind if you want to make a profit with Premier League goalscorer bets at non GamStop bookmakers. First, a brief overview, followed by detailed explanations of each. Or try out trusted slot picks by gamblingpro.pro.

• 1. You must be able to predict the lineup as well as possible
• 2. Momentum is always reflected in the odds
• 3. Have a basic understanding of tactical orientations and player types
• 4. Know the special features

1. You must be able to predict the lineup as well as possible

Unless you’re placing a live bet, where the odds for goalscorer bets are usually significantly lower than pre-match odds, it’s essential that you predict the lineup as accurately as possible. If the player you have in mind isn’t even in the starting lineup, the bet obviously won’t pay off.

This may sound obvious, but beginners in particular are very likely to fall flat on their faces here. For example, when FC Bayern Munich hosts a relegation-threatened team at home, it might be tempting to bet on a goal from multiple top scorer Robert Lewandowski. But if you’ve forgotten that the crucial Champions League return leg is scheduled for the following Tuesday, which is why the coach is resting half of his starting eleven, including the top scorer, then that’s not unfortunate or even bad luck, but rather the result of an insufficiently careful analysis beforehand.

Therefore, use all available channels to predict the teams’ starting lineups for such special matches as accurately as possible. This includes listening to press conferences, reading reports from the trade press, studying match previews, and consulting the club’s website. It’s usually not surprising when players are rested.

Tip: The lineup is usually announced 60 minutes before kickoff. From this point on, you know who’s on the pitch and who’s likely to score, but this is also the point at which bookmakers significantly lower the odds for starting players and significantly increase the odds for bench players. Knowing who the potential substitutes are who could score a goal can still be a very attractive proposition. However, betting on goals is less likely at non GamStop bookmakers. To reap decent returns, bets should be placed before the starting lineup is announced. Check out the 400% match bonus explained.

2. Momentum is always reflected in the odds at non GamStop bookmakers

If a player has just scored a brace or even a hat trick, the goal bet is essentially dead for the time being. This is because such momentum is always reflected in the bookmakers’ odds. This means that a player who has proven his goal-scoring threat in one game will only be given reduced odds for a series of matchdays, which can practically no longer lead to a positive expected value. Unless, of course, he’s a hot candidate for the top scorer award.

In the 2018/19 Premier League season, Dodi Lukebakio scored all three goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf practically out of nowhere in a 3-3 away draw with FC Bayern Munich. At that point, the young Belgian had scored a total of six times in twelve appearances. The odds of him scoring again in subsequent matches were always devastatingly low. He did manage to score again two games later, but from a penalty. Anyone who had backed him in both matches would have suffered a significant loss. The odds were ultimately below 2.00 in both games, meaning he wouldn’t even have been able to double his goal.

Given that hardly any player scores in more than 17 games per Premier League season (even for the league’s top scorers, ten to twelve games is already a top stat), the odds offered to you for the goalscorer bet (regular playing time; regardless of the time) should at least triple your stake. Realistically speaking, the goalscorer bet in the Premier League cannot be played otherwise – at least not with the intention of generating a long-term profit.

In summary, it is practically never worth betting on players who are currently on a roll, as the odds for these players always go down.

3. Have a basic understanding of tactical orientations and player types

Of course, you also need to know what type of player each player is, where they fit into the coach’s tactical approach, and how the opponent will react. For example, if the team’s main striker is a bulky center forward who plays little to no part in the build-up play, but scores goals up front with few touches of the ball whenever he’s put in the spotlight, then a defensive wall with aggressive center backs is a bad idea for goalscorers. Betting on this player at non GamStop bookmakers is a bad idea.

If, on the other hand, you have a lightning-fast counter-attacker who, on the one hand, is actively involved in midfield and, on the other hand, is always lurking on the halfway line in order to counterattack quickly when the opponent loses the ball, this type of striker would certainly be a great option if his team is playing a defensive game against the opponent, while at a certain point the opponents are forced to attack – for example, because they are in a relegation battle or need the points to qualify for an international starting place.

In short: know the game situations in which your chosen player will be best suited to the expected game situations. Of course, this doesn’t necessarily have to be a striker. A tall, strong-headed central defender who always comes forward on corners will also have a good chance of scoring against an opponent with smaller defenders or a goalkeeper who struggles or is unsure about crosses or set pieces. A goalkeeper who’s considered a flycatcher can certainly be beaten by a midfielder with a shot from distance. The list of such combinations that simply work is endless.

4. Know the special features

Last but not least, you should be aware of all the peculiarities that can arise in football. For example, a player might be returning after a long injury layoff. Perhaps it’s clear that he’ll be in the starting lineup. Perhaps it’s clear that he’ll come on in the second half. Either way, the motivation is likely to be enormous. And such stories are certainly not rare.

You should also know penalty the takers. This is especially true if there are any special circumstances. For example, in some teams it is not the goalscorer or striker who takes the penalty, but another candidate who is considered to have particularly strong nerves or is confident. Are there any unusual features? Do the either opponents give away unnecessary penalties far too often, or is the team awarded a penalty noticeably often because the speedy attackers can only be fouled to keep them away from the ball? In this case, the expected penalty taker would certainly be an option. You should also know their standard substitute in case the regular taker is missing.

Last but not least, it’s always a special moment when players have to compete against their former clubs or employers. Especially when the end of the relationship wasn’t exactly glorious. We’ve prepared an additional point for you on this topic.